{"id":18512,"date":"2024-02-20T15:33:35","date_gmt":"2024-02-20T15:33:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soicau1008.minhngocxoso.com\/?p=18512"},"modified":"2024-02-20T15:33:35","modified_gmt":"2024-02-20T15:33:35","slug":"phuong-phap-cach-tinh-xac-suat-lo-de-ty-le-trung-cao-nhat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soicaumb24.com\/phuong-phap-cach-tinh-xac-suat-lo-de-ty-le-trung-cao-nhat\/","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang cao nh\u1ea5t"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 \u0111ang b\u0103n kho\u0103n v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m sao d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00f4 c\u1ea7u ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t hay c\u00f2n g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 soi c\u1ea7u l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc. Soi c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 d\u1ec5 kh\u00f4ng ? D\u1ec5 hay kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n tu\u1ef3 v\u00e0o 3 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u00e0 t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t, quy lu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 Pi v\u00e0 c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u2013 C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 1 con l\u00f4<\/span><\/h2>\n

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh l\u00e0 tr\u00fang 2 s\u1ed1, hay 3 s\u1ed1, m\u00e0 n\u00f3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c tr\u00fang l\u00f4 v\u00ec ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh 1 con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00ec m\u1edbi t\u00ednh ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang l\u00f4 c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc k\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

M\u1ecdi ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec1u xoay quanh nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. V\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh s\u1ebd d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 1 con s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t<\/p>\n

M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u bi\u1ebft v\u1ea1n v\u1eadt quy \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 100% l\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u0111a nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 50% (c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 75% ho\u1eb7c 85%) v\u00ec ch\u00fang ta ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 2 \u0111\u1ec1u duy nh\u1ea5t trong l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 tr\u00fang (v\u1ec1) v\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t (t\u1ea1ch).<\/p>\n

C\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c ch\u01a1i t\u00e0i x\u1ec9u ho\u1eb7c x\u00f3c d\u0129a ho\u1eb7c ch\u01a1i b\u00e0n quay Roulette (b\u00e0n s\u1ed1 37 s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb 0 \u0111\u1ebfn 36 v\u1edbi 2 m\u00e0u s\u01a1n \u0111\u1ecf v\u00e0 \u0111en), t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 50% \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng khi m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 2 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 ch\u1eb5n, l\u1ebb (t\u00e0i x\u1ec9u) ho\u1eb7c tr\u1eafng \u0111\u1ecf (x\u00f3c d\u0129a) ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ecf \u0111en (Roulette).<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1  th\u00ec b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh l\u00f4 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u01b0\u1edbc (v\u00ec thua th\u00ec d\u1ec5 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 th\u1eafng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 c\u00e1i \u0111\u1ec1u \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng quy lu\u1eadt n\u00e0y).<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c s\u1ed1 c\u1ea7n:<\/h4>\n

\"C\u00e1ch<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng t\u1ed1i \u0111a 100% (t\u00ednh l\u00e0 1) cho 27 l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc g\u1ed3m 100 s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb 00 \u0111\u1ebfn 99<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thua (t\u1ea1ch l\u00f4) x\u1ed5 s\u1ed1 ki\u1ebfn mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc khi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e1nh 1 con l\u00f4 99% (\u0111\u00e1nh 1 con)<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, ch\u00fang ta se t\u00ednh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00f4 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. L\u00fd do l\u00e0 v\u00ec \u0111\u00e1nh tr\u01b0\u1ee3t s\u1ebd \u2026 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1nh tr\u00fang (V\u00e0 hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean c\u0169ng d\u1ec5 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u01a1n c\u1ea3). T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u1ea1ch con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% (100 s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00e1nh c\u00f3 1 con duy nh\u1ea5t n\u00ean ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t):<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 1 l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99%<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 2 l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% * 99%<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 3 l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% * 99% * 99%<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1ch 27 l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% ^ 27 (99% nh\u00e2n v\u1edbi 27 l\u1ea7n ch\u00ednh n\u00f3)<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 1 con l\u00f4<\/span><\/h4>\n

Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang l\u00f4 l\u00e0 1 (ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o) v\u00e0 c\u00e0ng t\u1ea1ch nhi\u1ec1u th\u00ec t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng g\u1ea7n v\u1ec1 1 nh\u1ea5t. Do v\u1eady, khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ea1t b\u1eb1ng con s\u1ed1 1 th\u00ec b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd tr\u00fang l\u00f4. Do \u0111\u00f3, t\u1eeb tr\u00ean ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd suy ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang l\u00f4 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c sau:<\/p>\n

[1 \u2013 (99% ^ 27)] * 100 ~ 23,7%<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 b\u00ean tr\u00ean:<\/p>\n

1 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o (t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 100%)<\/p>\n

99%^27 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea1n tr\u01b0\u1ee3t T\u1ea4T C\u1ea2 27 con l\u00f4<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c l\u00f4<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"B\u00ed<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ho\u00e1 ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh th\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i xin ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 1 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 23,7% (nh\u01b0 \u1edf tr\u00ean)<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 1 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 2 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% ^ 2 ~ 98%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 3 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99% ^ 3 ~ 97%<\/p>\n

D\u1ea5u \u201c~\u201d trong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng ho\u1eb7c x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 Nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y th\u00ec n\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb t\u1eeb, ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n t\u00ednh th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u1ee9 t\u00ednh 100 s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 100% cho d\u1ec5, c\u1ee9 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t n con th\u00ec gi\u1ea3m n l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 c\u1ee9 th\u1ebf b\u1ea1n t\u00ednh l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 t\u00ednh t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2<\/span><\/h2>\n

V\u1edbi c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t trong l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y th\u00ec b\u1ea1n l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh chia ra cho 2 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p v\u00ec ch\u01a1i l\u00f4 xi\u00ean l\u00e0 ch\u01a1i c\u00f9ng l\u00fac c\u1ea3 2 con s\u1ed1 n\u00ean b\u1ea1n c\u00f9ng l\u00fac ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u1ea3 2 con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 trong 3 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 2 con (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t), v\u1ec1 c\u00f9ng l\u00fac 2 con (tr\u00fang) v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 1 con duy nh\u1ea5t (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t):<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 hai con (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t h\u1ebft): 98% ^ 27 ~ 57,9%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00fang 1 con (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t h\u1ebft, tr\u00fang 1): 2 x 76,2% x 23,7%  ~ 36,1%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2: 57,9% + 36,1% ~ 94%<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb 3 c\u00e1i tr\u00ean ta suy ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2 b\u1eb1ng 100% \u2013 94% cho ra t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ~ 6%.<\/p>\n

c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean<\/span><\/h4>\n

V\u1edbi nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 6% th\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i xi\u00ean 2. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n v\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u01a1i \u0111\u00e1nh l\u00f4 \u1edf tr\u00ean v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p s\u1ed1 \u00edt ra th\u00ec b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0103n kh\u00e1 cao. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn ngay 2 con s\u1ed1 hay ra nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 gh\u00e9p l\u1ea1i th\u00e0nh 1 xi\u00ean v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 con [09,03]<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u01a1i l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00e0 n\u00f3i th\u00ec c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 ph\u1ea1m tr\u00f9 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, tuy nhi\u00ean ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1ch ch\u01a1i. V\u00ec v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n t\u1ef1 tay t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 logarit trong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u01a1i l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00e0 n\u00f3i th\u00ec x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 ph\u1ea1m tr\u00f9 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, tuy nhi\u00ean ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1ch ch\u01a1i. V\u00ec v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n t\u1ef1 tay t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 logarit trong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n

ch\u1ed1t s\u1ed1 vip<\/h3>\n
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